What Are The Chances Of Missing A Penalty?

Penalties are often described as lotteries of football, but there is always a small chance of the goalkeeper denying the goal scorer a chance to score. Since 2009, there have been close to 10,000 penalties awarded, and 75.49% have resulted in goals and 17.57 saved by the goalkeeper. 

When a penalty is awarded, everyone expects an easy conversion, and call a penalty taker is required to put the net behind the net without the goalkeeper getting on the ball first. Practically, the goalkeeper has 0.2 seconds to make a save before the ball crosses the goal line. 

A huge number of goalkeepers rely on guesswork. If there is a 17.4% possibility of the penalty save or miss, it means no penalty is a sure bet to score. 

The Importance of Penalties 

Naturally, soccer is a low-scoring game, and any penalty awarded can make a huge difference between the winning and the losing team. There is a noticeable conversion rate between the regular ninety minutes penalty and those taken during shoot-out; the regular game conversion rate is 76%, while the shoot-out is 70%. The reason for this is that there is an added pressure on the shoot-out penalties. All the players, including the inexperienced players, are likely to take part in the shoot-out decided penalty kicks. 

For football gamblers, it is essential to know the teams that are likely to give away penalties and those that are likely to receive them. Below is a list showing the best for/against ratio across the five biggest European leagues. 

Team Penalty ForPenalty AgainstRatio
Barcelona 88302.93
Beyern Munich  79302.36
Bournemouth 43172.53
Chelsea 79372.14
Napoli 76362.11
Real Madrid 91442.07
Man City 74362.06
PSG 67341.97
Borrusia Dortmund 48251.92
Leicester37201.85

What to Consider Before Betting on Penalties 

Most players strike the ball either to the left or right of the goal post. The most successful penalty takers are the unpredictable players who mix up their penalty placements. One of the best all-time penalty takers is Matt Le Tissier, with a conversion rate of 98%. In today’s football setting, some of the best penalty takers include Harry Kane, Kun Aguero, Wayne Rooney, and Eden Hazard. 

When a penalty is awarded, the most likely odd ranges from 1.18 to 1.3, depending on the betting company. Before placing your bet on a team to score or lose a penalty, consider the penalty taker and the goalkeeper. Some keepers have high penalty saving rates than others. Apart from Thomas Sorensen, Mark Schwarzer, Brad Friedel, and Shay Given, no goalkeeper reached double digits for penalty saves in the EPL. 

Conclusion 

The bottom line is that not all penalties are scored; even the best players miss penalties. No matter the circumstance, not at any given should you stake your all for a penalty awarded to be scored. Yes, the opportunity could look like a perfect chance to add something to your stake; you could end up losing the whole of your stake.
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Article Added: 30 Mar 2021, 12:57 pm GMT

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